The third time was the charm: Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury finally goes down Sunday. After almost two years of buildup and anticipation, the wait is over as the highly-anticipated showdown will take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Paul (6-0) & Fury (8-0) both put their unbeaten records on the line in a fight that will shape their careers…
Jake carries major momentum into the fight, having defeated Anderson Silva back in October. Tommy last fought short-notice replacement in Rolly Lambert Fogum in an exhibition bout on the November Mayweather vs Deji undercard. With the WBC offering a top 15 ranking to the winner & massive pressure on both, the stakes are high.
The pair are officially contracted to meet at 185 lbs with the bout to be contested over eight rounds. Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury will take place in partnership with Top Rank & MVP and will be broadcast on BT Sport Box Office in the UK at £19.95 and digitally in the United States on ESPN+ pay-per-view at $49.99. The card will begin at 7 p.m. GMT/2 p.m. ET.
Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury: Key Strengths and Weaknesses
Jake Paul
Jake’s right hand has been his most effective weapon so far, and it’s likely to play a big role in his strategy against Tommy Fury. More specifically his right overhand that brutally put both Tyron Woodley and Ben Askren down. Jake’s combination punching is also an impressive addition to his game, often mixing it up to the body to set up the big right. He had great success with this against Woodley and especially against Anderson Silva as he outboxed the MMA great.
However, his lack of a strong jab, especially compared to Tommy’s excellent jab and 80-inch reach is a clear weakness that Fury’s team will aim to exploit. In past fights, Jake has struggled to maintain distance with the jab. This was evident against Anderson Silva when Jake consistently struggled to keep Anderson off & had to make the fight rough to stay in control. It has to improve here. Also, whilst Jake’s combination punching is effective, his overall output is a weakness. Jake’s output has remained fairly low through each fight so unless he’s been putting in a lot of work to build toward outworking Tommy which is possible, it looks like his team is doubling down on landing that one big shot.
Tommy Fury
Tommy’s jab and reach give him a major edge here but more notably, he has far superior straight shots in general than Jake. If Tommy can capitalise on this effectively he can dictate the terms & pace of the fight. Paul has never been in there against anyone with these kinds of shots in their arsenal at this level. Tommy Fury’s biggest advantage though is undoubtedly his vast experience in both amateur and professional boxing. Tommy has competed against a variety of opponents with different styles that Jake has never seen. There has never been a time in his life when he hasn’t been surrounded by boxing. Jake has only fought professionally six times, and while he has shown promise in those fights you cannot mask the inevitable technical deficiencies that come with that in comparison to Fury.
On the flip side of that, there are also some potential vulnerabilities in Fury’s defence. Tommy’s habit of keeping his chin in the air could be a liability against Jake’s powerful right hand. He’s been stung by very low-level opposition in the past. Whilst he’s gotten away with it, if he fails to keep his chin down here, he will in trouble. Tommy also has yet to show he has clear knockout power. His half-brother, heavyweight great Tyson Fury saying that he “can stay in Saudi Arabia” if he doesn’t ‘chin’ Jake Paul will only add to that pressure.
Psychological Factors
There are questions about whether Tommy can handle a dog fight and really step on the gas. We’ve seen Tommy look great when he’s cruising but whenever he doesn’t have that complete control the fight becomes more open and a lot more cagey. This is where he’s been caught with big shots by low-level opposition. Yes, he has come through these challenges but the level of opposition hasn’t exploited this yet with them having a combined record of 24-176-5. Many feel he seems to perform best when he’s the hammer but can he be the nail?
Regardless, Tommy certainly seems more confident this fight week. “Tomorrow night, his time is up. Jake Paul will no longer be boxing. “I’m gonna put this guy away in four rounds,” he stated. “This has been the best experience of my life, it’s a dream come true and tomorrow night it gets sweeter. Tomorrow night you’re going to see why my last name is Fury and why we’re the best who have ever lived.”
“He’s acting on stage, getting all hyped up, trying to act like his brother,” Paul responded. “This professional boxer is going down; it’s easy, it’s simple. “I’m ready, calm, cool, collected. This is what I do. He’s shaking up on stage; you can see the nerves running through his system. I’m chill.”
Who is the ‘Real’ Boxer
Despite questions about Tommy’s commitment to the sport having pulled out of the fight on two previous occasions, he has maintained his stance that Jake isn’t a legitimate boxer. He believes this is an easy fight for him en route to his goal of being a world champion. Many would argue that his career is on the line. It is if his father & coach John Fury has anything to do with it, stating there would be “no more boxing for Tommy” if he loses. The public expectation is high but the family expectation is higher and the Fury Family shadow looms large over the shoulders of Tommy Fury.
Summary
There is little doubt that Tommy is technically speaking a cleaner ‘boxer’ than Jake. The prettier this fight is, the better it is for Tommy Fury. Logically, Tommy should win a decision quite comfortably or pick Jake apart. He has clear technical advantages, physical advantages, and a lifetime of being brought up in the world of boxing in a family that produced one of the greatest British fighters of all time.
I do, however, believe that there is doubt as to whether he is a better ‘fighter’ than Jake Paul. The fact that Jake has even potentially caught up in the five years he’s been boxing to a position where this fight could be competitive shows the clear determination and mental strength he has going into this fight. Whilst he lacks Tommy’s overall boxing experience, Jake has very good big-fight experience and a proveable ability to handle main-event pressure. I expect this to benefit him massively here. And most importantly, he has an equaliser: One-punch knockout power in that right hand which happens to be something that Tommy Fury is clearly vulnerable to.
Prediction: Jake Paul Defeats Tommy Fury via 5th round TKO
I believe that Tommy comes out aggressive, likely jab-heavy in the first 1-2 rounds. Jake matches the aggression & offers some resistance. Jake has to show a good enough output to keep Tommy on his toes or he’ll be picked apart. However, as we’ve seen before I think the right hand begins to get through for Jake in rounds 3-4. As he starts to land he grows in confidence whilst the reverse happens to Tommy. I don’t see Tommy coping well here & I think he starts to unravel in there. Holes in the defence open up & Jake lands a big right overhand or hook, knocks Tommy down in the 5th, and eventually gets the TKO.
Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury: Who wins? Do you agree or disagree & why? Let us know in the comments below!
Featured image credits to Embed from Getty Images
