UFC 296 is arguably the best PPV of 2023, along with a host of narratives is the return of Paddy Pimblett. The young Brit is second on the PPV which sees him battle longstanding lightweight legend Tony Ferguson. Ferguson has recently dropped out of the rankings at lightweight, so the value of this fight for Paddy lies in the name.
Paddy has been out since his controversial unanimous decision win over Jared Gordon a year ago. Since then he’s undergone surgery on a troublesome ankle injury and has focused on his rehabilitation & training before stepping back into the Octagon.
What Reception will Paddy Pimblett receive at UFC 296?
UFC 296 has several narratives going into it and is stacked with both fight quality and personality. Perhaps one of the more curious plot lines is the popularity of Paddy Pimblett since the Jared Gordon fight.
The backlash from that fight has been consistent and quite vicious in places, the public opinion has taken a swift change on Paddy. Why? Well, lots would point to his post-fight interview from the Jared Gordon fight, when asked if he thought the fight was close Paddy replied:
“No not at all, I won the first 2 rounds and then coasted in the third. I knew I was 2 rounds up so I didn’t wanna do anything dangerous and risk losing the fight. I knew for a fact I won the first 2 rounds easily.”
The Fallout from UFC 281
Those comments queued a chorus of boos from the crowd at UFC 281, and since then Paddy has been relentlessly abused on social media which Paddy addressed in an interview with Sky Sports:
“The last year has been quite hard to be honest. The amount of people that have been giving me hell on socials and everything. Even been getting told to take me own life and stuff like that. You’ve gotta take the bad with the good, MMA fans are fickle. When I beat Tony Ferguson everyone will be back on the bandwagon.”
What’s easy to forget is 7 months earlier at UFC London in July 2002 Paddy delivered a heartwhelming post-fight speech. In that speech he talked about mental health for men and uttered the iconic line of “I would rather me friend crying on my shoulder than carrying his coffin”. Post speech Paddy was hailed as an inspiration and a role model for his openness and honesty. Since that speech, he’s started “The Baddy Foundation” which aims at combating food inequality and men’s mental health.
In such a short UFC tenure Paddy Pimbletts star has become incredibly complex. He’s been an acclaimed hero and a circumstantial heel, both, you could argue of his own making. What reception will he receive in Vegas on December 16th…. A divisive one.
Is Paddy more than just “Mouthy”?
His opponent Tony Ferguson featured on the MMA Hour when this fight was announced and had this to say about Paddy:
“I’m not going to say he’s a fat f*** He’s a good fighter. He’s long, rangy, lanky. He likes to put on a show, he’s kind of mouthy.”
Grappling Breakdown
The question is, do Paddy Pimblett’s technical skills back up his ability to talk? A dive into the statistics tells us that Paddy is incredibly dangerous on the ground. he has 50% of his wins by submission, 6/10 being by rear naked choke. On the ground Paddy is incredibly slick, he’s not your standard “lay and pray” fighter. He’s able to chain together transitions at speed and be on his opponent’s back before they realise it, that’s undoubtedly Paddy’s strength.
Coming into this fight against Ferguson the ground battle is a fascinating element of the fight. Tony has been and always will be a threat from his back, whether that’s elbows or Hail Mary submissions, but Paddy thrives in that world too and averages 2.4 submissions per fight (with an average fight time of 7.4 minutes). Look out for Paddy trying to create those scrambles where he can catch Tony, don’t be surprised if Paddy puts himself in danger to sneak something in on Tony.
Striking Statistical Breakdown
Diving into the striking numbers the picture starts to look worrying. Paddy has a strike defence rate of 41%, meaning that more than 1/2 strikes get through. By comparison (Tapology top lightweights where Paddy is ranked #25), Justin Gaethje (#3) has 53%, Benoit Saint-Denis (#12) has 44% and Nasrat Haqparast (#24) has 64%. Paddy has also been rocked multiple times in his UFC career. Paddy also absorbed 3.48 significant strikes per minute, showing that he relies on chaos to create scrambles to set up his submissions.
When we look at his offensive striking skillset, Paddy lands at 46%, mostly significant strikes and mostly to the head. He’s particularly dangerous out on the feet, he throws wild shots from unorthodox angles making it difficult for his opponents to time or counter.
So what do we learn from the stats? to put it simply Paddy gets hit a lot and usually submits people after it. Will that be the same against Tony Ferguson, very possibly. Recently Tony has damaged both Bobby Green & Michael Chandler, if we look at the Green fight in particular it’s after a striking exchange that Bobby gets Tony in a head and arm choke. What may not play into Paddy’s plan is operating in chaos, Paddy will need to hope that his youth and speed can overcome Tony who is also adept at fighting in chaos, especially on the ground.
The Ferguson Factor
Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson was the boogeyman of the division for so long. It’s sad to see that those days are very well behind him, yes he’s hurt Gaethje, Chandler & Green in recent fights. However against Dariush, Oliveria & Diaz he looked outclassed, outdated and outmatched. The marauding, relentless style that dispatched Anthony Pettis, Kevin Lee and even saw him dubbed “Khabibs kryptonite” is now mere myth.
What Ferguson does poses is experience and the uncanny ability to always be in a fight, pointing towards those moments mentioned previously. Tony still commands the respect of some of the UFC’s top fighters:
Robert Whittaker: “Even the Tony we saw last time I think can beat Paddy. I do think Paddy was overhyped for his skill set, which is fine ’cause there are a lot of guys that get into the UFC and have to develop their skill sets and develop their character as they go along. That’s just the nature of the game.”
Sean O’Malley: “You go out there and beat Tony—who’s really good, but on a six-fight losing streak—so if you beat him, you’re not going to get credit for beating f*cking Tony Ferguson. But it’s a dangerous fight. It’s not that easy of a fight. It’s going to be a tough fight. Tony could 100 hundred percent win this fight. Now you’re coming off a loss to a guy—I mean, at least it’s still T-Ferg, but it’s like, is it T-Ferg?”
Conclusion
At the beginning of this article, we asked “Is Paddy the real baddy”. He’s morphed into a cult-like figure in his forced absence through injury. For better or worse his last performance was by far his weakest in the UFC, and the time out has given time for the haters to gather and the pro-Paddy fans to dig in deep. Love him or hate him there’s no doubt that Paddy “The Baddy” has become bigger than his fighting persona.
Paddy Pimblett brings eyeballs to the sport and is a rare combination of charisma and excitement inside and outside of the Octagon. When we consider this fight, there’s only one conclusion you can come to… Fireworks no matter what. the fight itself has all the elements a fight fan looks for in exciting matchups, both are capable of finishing, both love fighting in chaos and both are dangerous anywhere the fight goes.
Featured image credits to Embed from Getty Images
