A classic young gun versus veteran matchup greets Jacksonville this weekend as Georgian/Spanish Ilia Topuria takes on Team Alpha Male’s Josh Emmett. Topuria, on the back of a dominant win over Bryce Mitchell, aims to break into the elite of Featherweight with a win over Emmett. Considered by many to be the next big thing at Featherweight, a win puts Topuria straight into title contention if Volkanovski remains atop the featherweight division and remains eager for new names to fight. For Emmett, after a devastating loss to now Interim champion Yair Rodriguez, a win places him back into the mix in a featherweight division still looking for talent after Rodriguez’s title shot plays out. A loss places Emmett firmly out of title contention perhaps permanently, as the 38-year-old Featherweight will struggle to recapture a streak as he ages out of the division.
Ilia Topuria: The New Hotness At Featherweight
Watching Topuria strike for a minute will tell you most of what you need to know about his style. Relatively unvaried in what he does yet still shockingly dangerous on the feet, Topuria’s best work comes from a left body shot followed by a right hand. The left comes in clean as a hook or jab before committing heavily to the right hand.
This works wonders if Topuria lands (just ask Jai Herbert or Damon Jackson). However, if he’s made to miss, Topuria swings wildly out of position. Despite remaining unpunished for this thus far, it’s hard to see it not land him in trouble as he fights more advanced strikers. Likewise, Topuria’s defence gets sloppy when he throws big, his left notably falling as he throws his right. Despite the unpolished defence, Topuria’s power and willingness to stay on his opponent like a mad dog carries him through choppy waters.
Much of Topuria’s movement relies on his constant bobbing. These subtle level changes act as a smokescreen ahead of any takedowns and body shots. Likewise, the severe threat of Topuria going low at any time with a terrifying ground game and nasty hooks to the body sets up his shots upstairs. Threatening with hits to the body, takedowns and overhands is a simple way that Topuria’s striking blends together. Topuria also has success at countering low kicks, answering right back with punches to catch his man off balance and score at best an easy knockdown, at worst a transition to the ground. Against Emmett, who likes to step up into lead low kicks, Topuria can capitalise and earn some big moments if timed right.
Standing Strong and Submission Grappling: Topuria’s Keys To Victory
Against a power puncher such as Emmett, it is vital that Topuria maintain composure. For one, Topuria’s overswinging provides Emmett with opportunities for counters, which with his power could prove fight-ending. Not only this, but Emmett seemingly struggles when forced to fight an opponent unphased by his blitzes and power. Whilst a big ask of a young fighter in his biggest fight yet, composure would go a long way in minimising the risks. Alongside this, Emmett’s tendency to dip to his right opens up the left body hook of Topuria. If he’s able to reliably hit Emmett’s body, Topuria runs the chance of taking some power out of Emmett’s punches. This may pay dividends if the fight hits the championship rounds, where Topuria is unproven but Emmett has shown to navigate without issue.
The other big advantage Topuria should have over Emmett is a legitimately threatening submission offence. If he’s able to get Emmett on the ground by hook or by crook, he’ll be within his ballpark to work for the finish. Whilst Emmett has a solid ground game of his own, he’s far more able to impose it upon those without much of one themselves. He isn’t a big finisher on the ground, nor is he particularly solid in top positions, and therefore Topuria should be expected to have near enough to free reign particularly if he can stay on top. In getting the fight to the ground, Topuria might look for the lead high/low kicks of Emmett to catch or time takedowns around.
Josh Emmett: Surviving In A Young Man’s Game
At 38 years old, Josh Emmett is fulfilling the role of the veteran looking to prove he’s still got it. Much like Topuria, Emmett is a grappler that finds most of his success in his striking. Emmett’s boxing is where he finds most of his finishes with a huge rear overhand and serviceable lead hook. As mentioned prior, Topuria’s overswinging (something that Emmett is also guilty of to a lesser extent) provides opportunities for Emmett to land with the power that has carried him in recent bouts.
As such, Emmett’s movement may be something to keep an eye on. His dedication to circling alongside sneaky switch-hitting may allow him to force Topuria to swing at shadows and Emmett to counter more effectively. However, it’s hard to put too much stock in this strategy as Emmett’s movement has certainly slowed in recent bouts. Where once Emmett would run a somewhat Dillashaw-esque gameplan on his opponents he now seems to be a little more planted in his movement. Instead, he has shown to focus on his aforementioned power to bank rounds that may otherwise be razor close.
Topuria’s Cardio: The Blind Spot
Topuria’s cardio is certainly one of the more overlooked questions coming into this bout. Understandably, as much of Topuria’s UFC wins have been quick stoppages. Looking at Topuria’s only decision in the UFC against Youssef Zalal, Topuria clearly tired in the third round. A grappling-heavy match, this is a fight that Topuria was largely dominating up to the point of gassing. It certainly eyebrows, then, if Emmett can survive the initial onslaught from Topuria and conserve his best efforts until Topuria has swung and scrambled himself out. A more conservative approach early may pay dividends for Emmett in order to retain his power until Topuria is less able to counter and defend effectively.
Closing Thoughts
This is a matchup with few clear paths to victory for either gentleman due to the similarity in their styles. They are both power punchers, both overswing and both have good wrestling. The clear area in which Topuria exceeds Emmett is his submission offence, whilst Emmett’s biggest in seems to be the question of Topuria’s cardio.
That being said, it’s hard to focus solely on the more technical aspects given the age difference between the two fighters. Emmett’s age should be expected to play a part, as the lighter weight classes are notoriously unkind to those fighters over 35. At 38, Emmett far exceeds this and faces an uphill battle in athleticism and speed. That being said, at just 26 Topuria himself may be due for the traditional prospect loss in which we see the full extent of his skills across 25 minutes. Whichever way one leans, this is certainly an odd mirror-match of styles between two of featherweight’s best.
Featured image credits to Embed from Getty Images
