The final card before a week off is UFC Vegas 73 at the Apex in Las Vegas. The card received a makeshift main event and has lots of fighters vying for their jobs.
The card is flying under the radar, especially with some other MMA news going around, but it has a lot of potential action. Here we will dive into some betting lines and see where the value is.
BET #1 – Diego Ferreira ML -160
Speaking of fighting for their jobs, Diego Ferreira has now suffered three straight losses. The level of competition was top-notch, but it is rare to see fighters sticking around on four-fight losing streaks.
Ferreira took some time off and now returns with a solid stylistic matchup with Michael Johnson. Ferreira will have the wrestling advantage, which should erase the defence that has plagued him recently. The biggest concerns will be the age and layoff for Ferreira, although Johnson is not much younger. Neither of these men appears to be in their primes any longer, but the best skill in this fight is the BJJ of Ferreira. When a lot else is even, an advantage like that can be enough to win.
BET #2 – Shahbazyan/Hernandez Under 2.5 Rounds -145
Bets are tough to come by this week regarding safe parlay pieces, but violence should be a key target. This fight is a perfect example of one that will finish inside the distance. Hernandez is a big favourite in this matchup but will face an early onslaught from Shahbazyan. Shahbazyan is hell early on while fresh but does tend to gas out later in fights. Hernandez is a cardio machine which has been on both sides of finishes as well.
Rather than pick a money-line side in this one, the smart bet looks like taking the under 2.5 rounds.
BET #3 – Angela Hill ML +150
This bet is the least confident of the bunch but is a play strictly on value. The odds and lines suggest this fight is likely going the distance.
Mackenzie Dern’s clearest path to victory in this one is finding a submission. If the fight gets extended and stays on the feet, Hill can easily bank rounds.
Hill has had better takedown defence lately, and Dern is not a great wrestler. Even if Hill cannot stop every takedown, she just needs enough work standing to win 3 of the five rounds. This bet is not a guarantee but provides value at +150 in what should be a 50/50 fight.
Featured image credits to Embed from Getty Images
