UFC returns at the Apex this Saturday after a bye week and has us feeling recharged. This summer will be jam-packed full of events and gives fans plenty to be excited about.
The Ultimate Fighter and Road to UFC are in full swing as well so lack of fights will be no issue. Here we will focus on UFC Vegas 74 and which lines look appealing enough to throw money on.
BET #1 – Luan Lacerda ML -145
Luan Lacerda dropped his UFC debut against a very tough fighter in Cody Stamann. Even with the loss, Lacerda showed a lot in a very close fight and proved he can get some wins at this level. He now gets a sizable step down in competition and has a very playable betting line.
Da’Mon Blackshear is solid but has a tendency to be held down and out grappled on the mat. In terms of striking this should be a competitive affair, but the edge really goes to Lacerda with his grappling abilities. A submission could come into play or a lot of control could be key for Luan to get his first win in the UFC.
BET #2 – Andrei Arlovski ML +105
Value is key in this matchup as the line should be flipped at the very least. It is no secret Arlovski is no longer in his prime but that has not stopped him from securing decision wins over unranked Heavyweights.
Don’Tale Mayes is a fighter that likely gives Andrei the exact fight he wants in a slow-paced striking match. Even when the fights are razor close we have seen the judges favor Arlovski’s style and reward the old veteran. Low-level heavyweights hardly seem like the best place to bet, but there is value when the line is off and that is what I believe is true here.
BET #3 – Jim Miller KO Prop +400
This is a spot that sticks out to take a smaller shot due to the large odds. Jim Miller is nearing 40 years of age yet still holds a ton of power in his hands. His opponent, Jared Gordon has been knocked out in the past and is coming off a brutal clash of heads not too long ago. The quick turnaround adds more fuel to the fire in terms of Gordon getting hurt in this matchup.
The reason to not go too heavy on this play is due to the skill Gordon has. Jared Gordon is a very well-rounded fighter and should be the minute winner in this one. Miller’s likely path is the KO and it is worth a play at more than 4 to 1 odds.
BET #4 – Caceres/Pineda Under 2.5 Rounds -135
The final play we’ll give out is a violence spot. The Co-Main event between Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda seems primed for a finish.
Starting with Alex Caceres, he has gotten his fair share of finishes lately and has been very dangerous. He is very tough as well but his opponent brings something extra. Daniel Pineda only gets wins by finishes and makes it his goal to do so. He is also super tough but is not above taking a finish loss.
With this case laid out taking the Under 2.5 Rounds makes a lot of sense. Rather than siding with a name in a battle between two very dangerous men, betting on violence at UFC Vegas 74 will win for us long term.
Featured image credits to Embed from Getty Images
